Girls of the Top 16

Once again I’ll try to look at the girls from who definitely stays and who is likely to go perspective, as much as just saying who I liked, which was pretty much all of them.  Ramiele stumbled, but is safe based on existing fan base momentum.  If you’ve watched American Idol any length of time, you know it’s neither a singing competition nor strictly powered by who did well or poorly in a given week.

Carly is safe due to pimpage and being sufficiently good.

They appear to want Asia’h to go and uncrowd the proverbial black diva demographic the rest of the way.  We like both her and Syesha.  They both could be in some danger this week, though only one of the two will go, if either does.

Brooke was great, if surprising.  But then, surprising is usually good.  She’s in no danger.

Amanda was arguably best of the week, redeeming herself from last week.  Still kind of a one trick pony, but so seemed Daughtry.  I saw someone say, negatively, imagine 12 tracks of that.  During the show I said, positively, I could see an album of that selling.  Anyway, between the good week, VFTW, and being so distinctive, she’s safe.

Kady was great this week.  Just as I became an Alaina fan during top 24, I saw why Kady was there this week.  She ought to be safe if it’s just about who performed well, but it’s not.  Just makes it tighter.  The generic blond votes are split and she was the next from the bottom last week.  Just as prior popularity carries you, prior lack of popularity bogs you down and gets you too few votes to stay, even if it’s been your best week.  Heck, it’s been common on Idol for people to leave the week of their best.  It’s just inertia.

Kristy was okay, but would seem to be endangered by the multiple blond thing, the excess pimpage thing, and just not having stood out as much as you might expect of a previously signed recording artist.  The saving throw may be the country edge, which there’s little of this year, and demand enough for to help she who delivers it.

The “it’s a singing competition” and “prior weeks and fan base don’t matter” elimination would be Ramiele, but if you pay any attention to the data and buzz, she’s safer than safe.  The candidates you really can draw on this week are Kady, Kristy, Syesha and Asia’h.  Overall I prefer Kady and Syesha, respectively on the strength of this week and Kristy’s ongoing meh-ness and over promotion, and on being a good and making me a fan from the start.  This week I prefer Kady and Asia’h, who were better and more entertaining.  My first prediction was Kady and Asia’h would go.  If I am wrong, most likely it will be Kady and Syesha.  If I am even more wrong, it will be Kristy and one of the others, but not Kristy and Kady together.  The last combo would constitute a “surprise elimination,” as would any of the four girls I consider completely safe.  Syesha deserves to go over Asia’h simply for having not taken advantage of the pimp spot.

On a judging note, Paula was in rare form even for her, and what is up with not only being in trouble for singing Whitney, Celine or Mariah, but anything they’ve ever covered?  I mean, not that anyone should want to do their stuff, considering all the good music that exists, but covers too?  Weird.

Posted by on 03/06 at 12:58 PM

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